Schalke 04 2-1 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 28 Nov 2025

📅28/11/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.93
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.85
6+ Goals
8%
17.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 36% vs market 27.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.73
1/2
8%
32.0
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
14%
5.66
X/2
13%
6.11
X/X
14%
4.21
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
15%
4.21
2/X
6%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.7pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.9pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.4pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +24%
1.60/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.30
+5% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +17%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
275 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
21.6 Crosses 17.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Schalke 04
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Paderborn
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.51 xG 1.65
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
308 Passes 322
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
02.05.2025 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 0-2 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
06.12.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 2-4 HT 1-2 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
09.03.2024 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 3-3 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
29.09.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 3-1 HT 1-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
18.02.2022 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 2-0 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
12.09.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 0-1 HT 0-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Schalke 04
2-1
AWAY Paderborn
1.78 xG 0.56
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
145 Passes 316
60% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Schalke 04 vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Schalke 04 edged past Paderborn 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Schalke 04 found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Schalke 04 had 38% of the ball to Paderborn's 62%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.78 to 0.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Schalke 04's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Schalke 04 had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Schalke 04 and 1.67 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of Schalke 04 vs Paderborn?

Schalke 04 2-1 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 28/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Schalke 04 vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Schalke 04 win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Schalke 04 36%, draw 28%, Paderborn 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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