Kocaelispor 1-0 Gençlerbirliği — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 28 Nov 2025

📅28/11/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.71
Over 2.5
54%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.96
No
46%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.79
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
4.04
6+ Goals
10%
19.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.34
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.7
X/1
20%
4.2
X/2
8%
9.25
X/X
11%
4.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.0
2/2
12%
7.83
2/X
5%
16.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-1.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
55%
-8.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
45%
+8.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.0pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 24%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -23%
2.08/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.72
+20% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
Crosses 14.4
Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kocaelispor
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.09 xG 0.88
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
331 Passes 284
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.01.2025 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-0 HT 1-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
10.08.2024 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-1 HT 0-1 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
15.03.2024 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-0 HT 2-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
28.10.2023 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-2 HT 1-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
20.03.2022 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-1 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
24.10.2021 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 1-2 HT 1-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kocaelispor
1-0
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
1.27 xG 0.20
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 1
419 Passes 379
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 5
29 Crosses 7
POST-MATCH Kocaelispor vs Gençlerbirliği
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kocaelispor edged past Gençlerbirliği 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kocaelispor as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Kocaelispor had 53% of the ball to Gençlerbirliği's 47%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 1.27 to 0.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gençlerbirliği led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kocaelispor and 1.50 for Gençlerbirliği.

What was the final score of Kocaelispor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Kocaelispor 1-0 Gençlerbirliği in the Turkey - Super League on 28/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kocaelispor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kocaelispor win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Kocaelispor 52%, draw 24%, Gençlerbirliği 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kocaelispor) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kocaelispor) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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