Sydney 3-0 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 28 Dec 2024

Sydney
3-0 HT 2-0
Melbourne Victory
📅28/12/2024 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Sydney vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.54
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.77
6+ Goals
14%
7.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.99
1/2
7%
23.85
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
12%
6.43
X/2
8%
5.4
X/X
10%
5.54
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
23%
3.13
2/X
9%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.8pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sydney v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sydney EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -14%
1.83/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.42
-9% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
403 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 83%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
21.1 Crosses 19.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.4

Sydney vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sydney
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.29 xG 1.62
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
417 Passes 365
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.01.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 1-1 Sydney Sydney AVUS
16.12.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-0 HT 2-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
21.10.2023 Sydney Sydney 0-2 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
04.03.2023 Sydney Sydney 1-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
26.01.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-2 HT 1-1 Sydney Sydney AVUS
08.10.2022 Sydney Sydney 2-3 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS

Sydney 3-0 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sydney
3-0
AWAY Melbourne Victory
2.69 xG 0.74
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 16
10 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
493 Passes 413
91% Pass Accuracy 89%
29 Box Touches 20
9 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sydney vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sydney swept aside Melbourne Victory 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; Sydney found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, over 2.5 goals (58%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, Sydney had 53% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 47%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 2.69 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sydney and 1.67 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Sydney vs Melbourne Victory?

Sydney 3-0 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 28/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sydney vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sydney 37%, draw 25%, Melbourne Victory 38%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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