Galatasaray 2-1 Gaziantep FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 29 Jan 2024

📅29/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.22
Draw
23%
6.26
Away
21%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.96
Over 2.5
54%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
7.22
2-3 Goals
36%
2.22
4-5 Goals
28%
2.46
6+ Goals
12%
4.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.3
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
30.0
X/1
19%
3.5
X/2
8%
29.5
X/X
8%
11.4
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
21.25
2/2
7%
20.95
2/X
8%
28.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.25 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
78%
-21.7pp
23%
Draw
13%
+9.6pp
21%
Away Win
9%
+12.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
30%
+16.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
70%
-16.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 11%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
2.54/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/2.07
-1% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +18%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
456 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
34.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
25.5 Crosses 15.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galatasaray
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Gaziantep FK
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.17 xG 1.22
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
418 Passes 279
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 0-3 HT 0-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
05.09.2022 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-1 HT 1-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
20.03.2022 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 3-1 HT 1-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
31.10.2021 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-0 HT 1-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
29.01.2021 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-2 HT 0-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
12.09.2020 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3-1 HT 3-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galatasaray
2-1
AWAY Gaziantep FK
3.18 xG 0.51
76% Ball Possession 24%
35 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 2
508 Passes 104
83% Pass Accuracy 51%
66 Box Touches 7
47 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Galatasaray vs Gaziantep FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galatasaray squeezed past Gaziantep FK 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Galatasaray as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Galatasaray had 76% of the ball to Gaziantep FK's 24%, shots finished 35-6, expected goals 3.18 to 0.51 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Galatasaray's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galatasaray had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Galatasaray and 1.00 for Gaziantep FK.

What was the final score of Galatasaray vs Gaziantep FK?

Galatasaray 2-1 Gaziantep FK in the Turkey - Super League on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galatasaray vs Gaziantep FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Galatasaray win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Galatasaray 56%, draw 23%, Gaziantep FK 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Galatasaray), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Galatasaray) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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