Gateshead 1-0 Rochdale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.51
2-3 Goals
42%
2.01
4-5 Goals
23%
2.65
6+ Goals
13%
6.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.72
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.15
X/1
16%
3.83
X/2
6%
13.65
X/X
7%
7.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.8
2/2
10%
9.52
2/X
7%
17.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-7.2pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.3pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.9pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gateshead EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Rochdale EU Bookmakers 19%
-13% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
2.20/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/2.47
+17% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -29%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
420 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gateshead
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Rochdale
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.12.2023 Rochdale Rochdale 1-5 HT 0-1 Gateshead Gateshead FAK
24.10.2023 Rochdale Rochdale 2-2 HT 2-0 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
10.11.2018 Rochdale Rochdale 2-1 HT 2-0 Gateshead Gateshead FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gateshead
1-0
AWAY Rochdale
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gateshead vs Rochdale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gateshead edged past Rochdale 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gateshead as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gateshead had 61% of the ball to Rochdale's 39%, shots finished 10-5.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Gateshead and 1.67 for Rochdale.

What was the final score of Gateshead vs Rochdale?

Gateshead 1-0 Rochdale in the England - National League on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gateshead vs Rochdale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gateshead win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Gateshead 58%, draw 21%, Rochdale 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gateshead), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gateshead) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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