Aucas 1-2 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 29 Mar 2025

Aucas
1-2 HT 1-2
Independiente Del Valle
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2025

Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
39%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.6pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.1pp
39%
Away Win
38%
+0.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.2pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aucas v Independiente Del Valle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 42%
+15% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -19%
1.45/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.26
+49% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -35%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
272 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
17.7 Crosses 15.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.2

Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.98 xG 1.59
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
186 Passes 392
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.09.2024 Aucas Aucas 0-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
25.03.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
12.11.2023 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
03.06.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
11.02.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKVSK
24.07.2022 Aucas Aucas 5-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1

Aucas 1-2 Independiente Del Valle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
1-2
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.38 xG 0.94
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
282 Passes 250
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle squeezed past Aucas 2-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Independiente Del Valle made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aucas had 52% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 48%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.38 to 0.94 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aucas.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aucas and 1.33 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle?

Aucas 1-2 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Aucas 35%, draw 26%, Independiente Del Valle 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EKV1 More Ecuador - Premier
29 Mar 2025
03:00 Barcelona SC vs Delfin Analysis →
22:00 Cuniburo FC vs Uni. Catolica Analysis →