Mazatlan 3-2 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 29 Mar 2025

Mazatlan
3-2 HT 2-2
Atlas
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Mazatlan vs Atlas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.46
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.53
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
25%
4.28
6+ Goals
8%
22.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-3.0pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.4pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mazatlan v Atlas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.45/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.27
+6% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
279 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
17.3 Crosses 17.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

Mazatlan vs Atlas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atlas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.19 xG 2.20
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
297 Passes 344
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.10.2024 Atlas Atlas 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
10.02.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
30.12.2023 Atlas Atlas 1-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan HAZ
21.10.2023 Atlas Atlas 1-3 HT 1-2 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
13.01.2023 Atlas Atlas 2-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
08.09.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-0 HT 1-0 Atlas Atlas MEK

Mazatlan 3-2 Atlas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
3-2
AWAY Atlas
1.20 xG 1.73
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
346 Passes 293
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Atlas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mazatlan edged past Atlas 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 32% / 34% — and on the day Mazatlan made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mazatlan had 54% of the ball to Atlas's 46%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.20 to 1.73 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atlas.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mazatlan had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mazatlan and 0.67 for Atlas.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Atlas?

Mazatlan 3-2 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Atlas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mazatlan win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 34%, draw 32%, Atlas 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
29 Mar 2025
04:00 Necaxa vs Queretaro Analysis →