Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 29 Mar 2025

Lechia Gdansk
1-0 HT 0-0
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.07
6+ Goals
12%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.52
1/2
12%
24.2
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
9%
6.75
X/2
10%
5.31
X/X
9%
5.06
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
21%
3.12
2/X
8%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.4pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lechia Gdansk v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 46%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +7%
1.48/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.73
-5% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
288 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 79%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
19.7 Crosses 12.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.57 xG 1.86
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
368 Passes 289
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 28
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.09.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-2 HT 1-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
10.04.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
17.09.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-2 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
11.12.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-2 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
21.09.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 HT 0-2 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POLK
24.07.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL

Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
1-0
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
0.98 xG 1.07
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 11
257 Passes 336
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 47
13 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lechia Gdansk nicked a narrow win over Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 44% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 56%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 0.98 to 1.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.67 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 33%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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