FC Tulsa 1-0 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.41
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.52
6+ Goals
9%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
12%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+1.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.6pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 43%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.43/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.23
-3% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
312 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
14.9 Crosses 16.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tulsa
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Sacramento Republic
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.80 xG 1.76
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
250 Passes 377
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
23.06.2024 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-0 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
14.04.2024 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
30.04.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-1 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
28.03.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-1 HT 1-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
08.03.2020 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
06.10.2019 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 2-3 HT 2-2 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tulsa
1-0
AWAY Sacramento Republic
0.59 xG 1.16
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
204 Passes 146
66% Pass Accuracy 58%
12 Box Touches 35
16 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tulsa squeezed past Sacramento Republic 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 35%) promised a tight game; FC Tulsa found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FC Tulsa had 54% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 46%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.59 to 1.16 — on chances, Sacramento Republic could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Tulsa and 1.33 for Sacramento Republic.

What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic?

FC Tulsa 1-0 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 36%, draw 29%, Sacramento Republic 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Tulsa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
29 Mar 2025
21:00 Hartford Athletic vs El Paso Locomotive Analysis →
23:00 Loudoun United vs Rhode Island Analysis →
23:00 Louisville City vs Detroit City Analysis →