Newcastle United U21 0-1 Aston Villa U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League 2 (League 1), 29 Apr 2024

📅29/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
4.0
Over 2.5
67%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
68%
1.28
No
32%
3.34
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
22%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
5%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.5pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.1pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.6pp
33%
Under 2.5
22%
+11.1pp
67%
Over 2.5
78%
-11.1pp
68%
BTTS Yes
74%
-6.3pp
32%
BTTS No
26%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United U21 EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa U21 EU Bookmakers 46%
+48% / +48% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -54% / -54%
2.75/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.48/1.81
+111% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -72%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
11.0 Crosses 25.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United U21
0-1
AWAY Aston Villa U21
0.38 xG 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
353 Passes 362
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newcastle United U21 vs Aston Villa U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa U21 nicked a narrow win over Newcastle United U21 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 22% / 39%) promised a tight game; Aston Villa U21 found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (68%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Newcastle United U21 had 50% of the ball to Aston Villa U21's 50%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.38 to 1.50.

What was the final score of Newcastle United U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

Newcastle United U21 0-1 Aston Villa U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United U21 39%, draw 22%, Aston Villa U21 39%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/22/39) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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