Aguilas Doradas 1-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 29 Apr 2024

📅29/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.6pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.2pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.4pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.3pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aguilas Doradas EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.02/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.03
+0% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -80% / +36%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
17.4 Crosses 18.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aguilas Doradas
1-1
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.52 xG 0.71
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
243 Passes 290
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aguilas Doradas vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aguilas Doradas and Fortaleza CEIF couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Aguilas Doradas at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Aguilas Doradas had 47% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 53%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.52 to 0.71.

What was the final score of Aguilas Doradas vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Aguilas Doradas 1-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aguilas Doradas vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aguilas Doradas win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Aguilas Doradas 46%, draw 29%, Fortaleza CEIF 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Aguilas Doradas), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aguilas Doradas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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