Envigado 0-1 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 29 Apr 2024

📅29/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
46%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
19%
+7.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
46%
Away Win
55%
-8.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.5pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Envigado EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 58%
+5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.82/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/0.70
+2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +21%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
261 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 80%
12.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
12.5 Crosses 14.3
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Envigado
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.72 xG 1.12
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
229 Passes 299
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
06.08.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
11.02.2023 Envigado Envigado 2-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
25.09.2022 Envigado Envigado 1-2 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
10.06.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
05.06.2022 Envigado Envigado 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
02.04.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Envigado
0-1
AWAY Independiente Medellin
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
203 Passes 342
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
POST-MATCH Envigado vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin edged past Envigado 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Envigado had 40% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 60%, shots finished 9-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Envigado and 1.33 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Envigado vs Independiente Medellin?

Envigado 0-1 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Envigado vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Envigado 27%, draw 27%, Independiente Medellin 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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