Atletico Bucaramanga 1-0 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 29 Apr 2024

📅29/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-6.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.7pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Bucaramanga EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 20%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.17/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.45
+22% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.9
17.0 Crosses 12.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Bucaramanga
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.92 xG 1.19
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
352 Passes 263
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.10.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
12.09.2023 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
26.04.2023 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 1-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
26.03.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
04.09.2022 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 3-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
23.07.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Bucaramanga
1-0
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.23 xG 0.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
423 Passes 299
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
8 Box Touches 3
18 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Bucaramanga vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Bucaramanga nicked a narrow win over Alianza Petrolera 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Bucaramanga as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Bucaramanga had 57% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 43%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.23 to 0.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atletico Bucaramanga and 1.50 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Atletico Bucaramanga vs Alianza Petrolera?

Atletico Bucaramanga 1-0 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Bucaramanga vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Bucaramanga win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Atletico Bucaramanga 52%, draw 26%, Alianza Petrolera 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Bucaramanga), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Bucaramanga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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