Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Tokyo Verdy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 29 Apr 2025

📅29/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
31%
2.77
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.38
Over 2.5
34%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.29
No
61%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
43%
1.92
2-3 Goals
33%
1.85
4-5 Goals
17%
6.76
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.08
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.95
X/1
17%
5.19
X/2
16%
5.78
X/X
18%
3.22
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
16%
4.8
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.6pp
30%
Draw
33%
-2.1pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.6pp
66%
Under 2.5
69%
-3.2pp
34%
Over 2.5
31%
+3.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.8pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 34%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.10/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.02
+2% / +144% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
20.5 Crosses 14.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.08.2023 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 2-3 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
11.06.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-2 HT 0-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
23.10.2022 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 2-0 HT 1-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
01.05.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-1 HT 0-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
09.10.2021 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 1-2 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
16.06.2021 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 0-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0-1
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
0.74 xG 1.36
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
245 Passes 336
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokyo Verdy nicked a narrow win over Fagiano Okayama 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Tokyo Verdy made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 46% of the ball to Tokyo Verdy's 54%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.74 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.33 for Tokyo Verdy.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy?

Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Tokyo Verdy in the Japan - J1 League on 29/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tokyo Verdy win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 34%, draw 30%, Tokyo Verdy 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tokyo Verdy), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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