Casa Pia vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Casa Pia v Estoril — Team-Based Signals
Casa Pia vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Casa Pia 1-3 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics
Estoril got the better of Casa Pia 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and on the day Estoril made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Casa Pia had 41% of the ball to Estoril's 59%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 1.99 to 1.68.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estoril led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Casa Pia and 1.33 for Estoril.
What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Casa Pia 1-3 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 38%, draw 30%, Estoril 32%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.