Delfin 4-3 Real Tomayapo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 29 May 2024

📅29/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.18
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
20%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
2.18
Over
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.51
No Pick
63%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1
28%
4.21
2-3
42%
1.86
4-5
20%
3.02
6+
10%
9.48
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.21 — our 28% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.35
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
34.5
X/1
21%
3.09
X/2
10%
29.5
X/X
8%
9.13
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
5%
25.5
2/X
5%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
80%
-17.3pp
18%
Draw
14%
+4.0pp
20%
Away Win
6%
+13.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.8pp
37%
BTTS Yes
36%
+0.9pp
63%
BTTS No
64%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Delfin EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Tomayapo EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
424 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Delfin
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Real Tomayapo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.59 xG 0.73
44% Ball Possession 56%
20 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 0
225 Passes 309
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.04.2024 Real Tomayapo Real Tomayapo 0-2 HT 0-0 Delfin Delfin CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Delfin
4-3
AWAY Real Tomayapo
3.82 xG 1.10
57% Ball Possession 43%
23 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
307 Passes 203
79% Pass Accuracy 67%
32 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Delfin vs Real Tomayapo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Delfin edged past Real Tomayapo 4-3. It was 2-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Delfin as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Delfin had 57% of the ball to Real Tomayapo's 43%, shots finished 23-12, expected goals 3.82 to 1.10 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Delfin's control.

What was the final score of Delfin vs Real Tomayapo?

Delfin 4-3 Real Tomayapo in the Copa Sudamericana on 29/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Delfin vs Real Tomayapo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Delfin win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Delfin 62%, draw 18%, Real Tomayapo 20%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Delfin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Delfin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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