Tallinna Kalev 2-3 FC Flora Tallinn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 29 May 2024

📅29/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.75
Draw
19%
3.72
Away
51%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
27%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
20%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+6.7pp
19%
Draw
24%
-4.3pp
51%
Away Win
53%
-2.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.4pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn EU Bookmakers 57%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.25/2.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/0.77
-4% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +48%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tallinna Kalev
0W-2D-4L
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.05.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-3 HT 0-2 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
10.03.2024 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 2-2 HT 0-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
22.09.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 1-0 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
20.08.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
27.05.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 3-0 HT 2-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
18.03.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-2 HT 0-0 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tallinna Kalev
2-3
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
44% Ball Possession 56%
19 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tallinna Kalev vs FC Flora Tallinn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Flora Tallinn edged past Tallinna Kalev 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Flora Tallinn as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Tallinna Kalev had 44% of the ball to FC Flora Tallinn's 56%, shots finished 19-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Flora Tallinn led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tallinna Kalev and 2.00 for FC Flora Tallinn.

What was the final score of Tallinna Kalev vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Tallinna Kalev 2-3 FC Flora Tallinn in the Estonia - Premium League on 29/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tallinna Kalev vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Flora Tallinn win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Tallinna Kalev 30%, draw 19%, FC Flora Tallinn 51%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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