Dundalk 3-3 Kerry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 29 Aug 2025

📅29/08/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.33
Draw
16%
4.62
Away
12%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.15
Over 2.5
60%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.85
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
2.88
6+ Goals
10%
8.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.88 — our 31% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
28%
X/2
3%
X/X
5%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
71%
+1.6pp
16%
Draw
18%
-2.3pp
12%
Away Win
11%
+0.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
43%
-2.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
57%
+2.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundalk EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Kerry EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
2.39/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/2.14
+7% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +0%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
450 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundalk
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Kerry
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
04.07.2025 Kerry 0-4 HT 0-1 Dundalk Dundalk İR1
23.05.2025 Dundalk Dundalk 2-0 HT 1-0 Kerry İR1
28.02.2025 Kerry 0-1 HT 0-1 Dundalk Dundalk İR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundalk
3-3
AWAY Kerry
58% Ball Possession 42%
24 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dundalk vs Kerry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dundalk and Kerry couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Dundalk at 72% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Dundalk had 58% of the ball to Kerry's 42%, shots finished 24-4.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Dundalk had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Dundalk and 0.00 for Kerry.

What was the final score of Dundalk vs Kerry?

Dundalk 3-3 Kerry in the Ireland - 1st Division on 29/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundalk vs Kerry?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dundalk win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Dundalk 72%, draw 16%, Kerry 12%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Dundalk), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dundalk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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