Bahia 1-0 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 29 Aug 2025

Bahia
1-0 HT 0-0
Fluminense
📅29/08/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Cup – 2025

Bahia vs Fluminense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
36%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.2
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.65
X/2
15%
6.73
X/X
15%
3.44
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
16%
5.65
2/X
6%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.2pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.0pp
36%
Away Win
27%
+9.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
-0.1pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Fluminense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 30%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -22%
1.15/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.54
-35% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / -53%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
322 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 79%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
18.2 Crosses 15.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Bahia vs Fluminense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fluminense
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.33 xG 1.06
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
341 Passes 396
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.08.2025 Bahia Bahia 3-3 HT 2-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
04.08.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
17.04.2024 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 1-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
01.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
25.06.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
05.12.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 2-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1

Bahia 1-0 Fluminense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-0
AWAY Fluminense
0.86 xG 1.11
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 8
364 Passes 354
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia nicked a narrow win over Fluminense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 36%) promised a tight game; Bahia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bahia had 50% of the ball to Fluminense's 50%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.86 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bahia and 1.17 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Fluminense?

Bahia 1-0 Fluminense in the Brazil - Cup on 29/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Bahia 35%, draw 29%, Fluminense 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fluminense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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