Fluminense 1-0 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.59
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.54
6+ Goals
10%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.91
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.15
X/1
14%
4.34
X/2
11%
6.93
X/X
13%
4.06
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
13%
5.6
2/X
5%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.8pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.4pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.9pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
1.39/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.45
-6% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
19.6 Crosses 16.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Bahia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.25 xG 0.99
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
396 Passes 322
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.04.2024 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 1-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
01.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
25.06.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
05.12.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 2-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
31.08.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 2-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
04.02.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
1-0
AWAY Bahia
1.06 xG 1.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
403 Passes 416
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense nicked a narrow win over Bahia 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Fluminense had 49% of the ball to Bahia's 51%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.06 to 1.73 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bahia.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fluminense and 1.00 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Bahia?

Fluminense 1-0 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 44%, draw 25%, Bahia 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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