Criciuma 2-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
48%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.47
6+ Goals
9%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
27%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+0.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
48%
Away Win
48%
+0.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Criciuma EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 52%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
1.35/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.09
+43% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -10%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
262 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 81%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
23.7 Crosses 21.9
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Criciuma
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.34 xG 1.04
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
190 Passes 418
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
18.04.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-1 HT 1-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
05.10.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 3-1 HT 2-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
26.05.2014 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
26.09.2013 Criciuma Criciuma 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
08.07.2013 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-2 HT 1-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
31.10.2004 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-2 HT 1-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Criciuma
2-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.70 xG 1.35
27% Ball Possession 73%
13 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
161 Passes 582
67% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Criciuma vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Criciuma nicked a narrow win over Atletico Mineiro 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Mineiro at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Criciuma had 27% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 73%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 1.70 to 1.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Criciuma and 1.33 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Criciuma vs Atletico Mineiro?

Criciuma 2-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Criciuma vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Criciuma 26%, draw 26%, Atletico Mineiro 48%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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