Sao Paulo 1-0 Flamengo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Over 2.5
35%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.19
No
64%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.16
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.8
X/1
20%
4.32
X/2
10%
6.67
X/X
14%
3.46
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
13%
5.79
2/X
9%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.7pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.1pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.9pp
65%
Under 2.5
65%
-0.7pp
35%
Over 2.5
35%
+0.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.3pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Flamengo EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
1.24/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.21
+6% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
22.4 Crosses 16.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Flamengo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.58 xG 1.12
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
366 Passes 382
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.04.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 2-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
07.12.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 1-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
24.09.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
17.09.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 0-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
14.08.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 1-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
15.09.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
1-0
AWAY Flamengo
1.42 xG 0.30
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 3
447 Passes 281
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Flamengo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo edged past Flamengo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and on the day Sao Paulo made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 59% of the ball to Flamengo's 41%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.42 to 0.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.83 for Flamengo.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?

Sao Paulo 1-0 Flamengo in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 40%, draw 29%, Flamengo 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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