Flamengo 2-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
29%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.56
Over 2.5
41%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.01
6+ Goals
10%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.29
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.6
X/1
18%
3.65
X/2
11%
9.48
X/X
12%
4.12
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
11%
8.54
2/X
8%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
55%
-13.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
29%
Away Win
18%
+10.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
60%
-1.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
40%
+1.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.1pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
1.82/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.49
-1% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
21.1 Crosses 15.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.13 xG 0.69
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
392 Passes 366
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 1-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
24.09.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
17.09.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 0-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
14.08.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 1-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
15.09.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
25.08.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-3 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
2-1
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.30 xG 0.69
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
324 Passes 394
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 13
11 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo squeezed past Sao Paulo 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Flamengo had 47% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 53%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.30 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Flamengo and 0.83 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?

Flamengo 2-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 42%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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