Fortaleza 1-1 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.96
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.7
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.6
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.95
X/1
10%
4.0
X/2
11%
7.92
X/X
14%
4.05
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
13%
6.74
2/X
9%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
47%
-7.8pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.3pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.1pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +20%
1.61/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.26
-27% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +41%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
19.8 Crosses 17.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.54 xG 0.85
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
241 Passes 398
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
19.11.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-1 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
22.06.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
27.10.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
13.06.2019 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-1 HT 2-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
15.10.2006 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
04.06.2006 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-2 HT 0-2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
1-1
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.64 xG 0.82
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
229 Passes 408
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza and Cruzeiro shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 30% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Fortaleza had 39% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 61%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.64 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fortaleza and 0.83 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Cruzeiro?

Fortaleza 1-1 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 39%, draw 31%, Cruzeiro 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fortaleza), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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