Gremio 2-0 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.8
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.16
6+ Goals
8%
20.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 30% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.59
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
18%
5.17
X/2
14%
5.69
X/X
9%
4.19
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
13%
4.12
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.8pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-1.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.4pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 38%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.06/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.47
+1% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 81%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
14.5 Crosses 17.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.86 xG 0.99
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
348 Passes 404
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.10.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
27.05.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
27.09.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-2 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
13.06.2021 Gremio Gremio 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
22.02.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
26.10.2020 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-2 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
2-0
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.13 xG 0.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 2
350 Passes 373
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio beat Atletico Paranaense 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gremio had 48% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 52%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.13 to 0.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gremio and 1.50 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?

Gremio 2-0 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gremio 42%, draw 25%, Atletico Paranaense 33%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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