Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.45
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.19
No
51%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.99
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.89
6+ Goals
11%
17.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.83
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✓
11%
18.85
X/1
22%
3.42
X/2
7%
13.35
X/X
9%
5.31
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
7%
11.7
2/X
5%
20.05
Value flag · 1/X at 18.85 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
65%
-10.4pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.5pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+6.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.9pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.78/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/2.02
+3% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -16%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.5 Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Criciuma
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
343 Passes 161
79% Pass Accuracy 66%
05.10.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 3-1 HT 2-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
26.05.2014 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
26.09.2013 Criciuma Criciuma 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
08.07.2013 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-2 HT 1-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
31.10.2004 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-2 HT 1-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1-1
AWAY Criciuma
1.04 xG 0.34
68% Ball Possession 32%
22 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 2
640 Passes 277
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro and Criciuma couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Mineiro at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 68% of the ball to Criciuma's 32%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 1.04 to 0.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.60 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Criciuma?

Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 54%, draw 26%, Criciuma 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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