Bragantino 2-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
21%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.75
Over 2.5
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.88
6+ Goals
9%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 31% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.52
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
13%
4.18
X/2
7%
8.04
X/X
11%
4.52
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
8%
6.3
2/X
9%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
48%
+2.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
22%
Away Win
25%
-3.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.5pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.70/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.42
+13% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
323 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
24.8 Crosses 16.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.37 xG 1.39
50% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
374 Passes 315
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.12.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
15.08.2023 Bragantino 1-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
21.01.2021 Bragantino 4-1 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
27.09.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
12.11.2016 Bragantino 1-2 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
23.07.2016 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 0-1 Bragantino BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
2-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
0.95 xG 1.19
40% Ball Possession 60%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
238 Passes 386
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 36
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino edged past Vasco da Gama 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bragantino as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bragantino had 40% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 60%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 0.95 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bragantino and 1.50 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama?

Bragantino 2-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 51%, draw 28%, Vasco da Gama 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bragantino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bragantino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
18 Apr 2024
01:00 Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense Analysis →
02:00 Atletico Mineiro vs Criciuma Analysis →
02:00 Fortaleza vs Cruzeiro Analysis →
02:00 Juventude vs Corinthians Analysis →
02:00 Palmeiras vs Internacional Analysis →
03:30 Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Analysis →