Atletico Paranaense 0-2 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Aug 2024

Atletico Paranaense
0-2 HT 0-2
Gremio
📅04/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.98
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.91
6+ Goals
10%
17.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 31% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.45
X/1
22%
3.7
X/2
6%
9.35
X/X
12%
4.98
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
10%
7.79
2/X
6%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-5.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Paranaense v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 23%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.62/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.63
+15% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
22.0 Crosses 13.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Gremio
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.96 xG 0.92
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
383 Passes 368
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.04.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
19.10.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
27.05.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
27.09.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-2 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
13.06.2021 Gremio Gremio 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
22.02.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1

Atletico Paranaense 0-2 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
0-2
AWAY Gremio
0.86 xG 2.20
75% Ball Possession 25%
18 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 0
604 Passes 163
89% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 9
39 Crosses 2
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio got the better of Atletico Paranaense 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Paranaense at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 75% of the ball to Gremio's 25%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 0.86 to 2.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.33 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?

Atletico Paranaense 0-2 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 51%, draw 26%, Gremio 23%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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