Vasco da Gama 2-2 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.33
Over 2.5
44%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.5
No
53%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.88
2-3 Goals
43%
1.94
4-5 Goals
21%
2.8
6+ Goals
9%
7.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.88 — our 27% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
49%
-9.8pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
39%
+17.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
61%
-17.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
62%
-15.2pp
53%
BTTS No
38%
+15.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 31%
-9% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -25%
1.43/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.28
-19% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
32.7 Crosses 20.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bragantino
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.35 xG 1.28
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
329 Passes 347
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.04.2024 Bragantino 2-1 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
07.12.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
15.08.2023 Bragantino 1-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
21.01.2021 Bragantino 4-1 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
27.09.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
12.11.2016 Bragantino 1-2 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
2-2
AWAY Bragantino
0.75 xG 1.38
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
463 Passes 246
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama and Bragantino couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 64% of the ball to Bragantino's 36%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.75 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.67 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Bragantino?

Vasco da Gama 2-2 Bragantino in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 39%, draw 28%, Bragantino 33%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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