Bahia vs Fluminense Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bahia v Fluminense — Team-Based Signals
Bahia vs Fluminense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Fluminense
BR1
2-1
HT 0-1
Bahia
BR1
2-0
HT 2-0
Fluminense
BR1
2-0
HT 1-0
Bahia
BR1
Bahia 3-3 Fluminense — Actual Match Statistics
Bahia and Fluminense shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bahia at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Bahia had 60% of the ball to Fluminense's 40%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.48 to 0.53.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bahia and 1.00 for Fluminense.
What was the final score of Bahia vs Fluminense?
Bahia 3-3 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bahia vs Fluminense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Bahia 55%, draw 24%, Fluminense 21%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.