Flamengo 2-1 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 10 Aug 2025

📅10/08/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.34
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.29
No
57%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.14
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 35% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.61
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
20.9
X/1
27%
3.59
X/2
7%
17.0
X/X
11%
6.0
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
5%
16.2
2/X
5%
24.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
70%
-7.9pp
22%
Draw
19%
+2.7pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+8.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-8.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.0pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.87/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.35
+6% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +74%
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
483 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 76%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
21.4 Crosses 13.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
2-1
AWAY Mirassol FC
1.34 xG 2.15
49% Ball Possession 51%
24 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 10
336 Passes 351
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
47 Box Touches 18
31 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo squeezed past Mirassol FC 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Flamengo had 49% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 51%, shots finished 24-13, expected goals 1.34 to 2.15 — the balance of chances actually favoured Mirassol FC.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Mirassol FC?

Flamengo 2-1 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie A on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 62%, draw 22%, Mirassol FC 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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