Luzern 1-0 Basel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 29 Sep 2024

Luzern
1-0 HT 0-0
Basel
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
41%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.03
Over 2.5
43%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.56
No
55%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
3.98
2-3 Goals
33%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.12
6+ Goals
7%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 36% vs market 20.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.48
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.0
X/1
13%
5.69
X/2
13%
6.05
X/X
11%
4.78
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
20%
3.81
2/X
7%
12.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
38%
-5.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
41%
Away Win
35%
+6.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
45%
+11.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
55%
-11.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
60%
-14.7pp
55%
BTTS No
40%
+14.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Basel EU Bookmakers 38%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.60/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.36
-1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +30%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 77%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
20.7 Crosses 16.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Basel
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.25 xG 1.09
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
314 Passes 336
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2024 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
21.04.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
17.12.2023 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
28.09.2023 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
23.04.2023 Basel Basel 0-2 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
04.03.2023 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-0
AWAY Basel
1.56 xG 0.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
28 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 1
14 Corners 2
291 Passes 429
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Basel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern nicked a narrow win over Basel 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Basel at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Luzern had 44% of the ball to Basel's 56%, shots finished 28-12, expected goals 1.56 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Basel led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Luzern and 0.83 for Basel.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Basel?

Luzern 1-0 Basel in the Switzerland - Super League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Basel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Luzern 33%, draw 26%, Basel 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Basel) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Basel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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İSV More Switzerland - Super League
29 Sep 2024
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