Aucas 1-4 Deportivo Cuenca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Cuenca EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
1.53/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.42
+11% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +21%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 71%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
18.2 Crosses 16.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Cuenca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.33 xG 1.39
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
259 Passes 260
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 4
13.04.2024 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 3-3 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
04.11.2023 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 0-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
28.05.2023 Aucas Aucas 0-2 HT 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
30.07.2022 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 1-2 HT 0-2 Aucas Aucas EKV1
12.03.2022 Aucas Aucas 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
07.11.2021 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 HT 2-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
1-4
AWAY Deportivo Cuenca
1.53 xG 0.69
61% Ball Possession 39%
24 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 6
16 Corners 4
278 Passes 155
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
27 Box Touches 9
46 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Deportivo Cuenca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Cuenca cruised past Aucas 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aucas at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Aucas had 61% of the ball to Deportivo Cuenca's 39%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 1.53 to 0.69 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aucas.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Cuenca led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aucas and 1.33 for Deportivo Cuenca.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Deportivo Cuenca?

Aucas 1-4 Deportivo Cuenca in the Ecuador - Premier on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Deportivo Cuenca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Aucas 48%, draw 26%, Deportivo Cuenca 26%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aucas) ✗ Under 2.5
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