Cumbaya 1-0 Emelec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.13
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
41%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.56
Over 2.5
39%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.16
No
56%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
21%
+7.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.3pp
41%
Away Win
52%
-11.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
60%
+0.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
40%
-0.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.2pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cumbaya EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Emelec EU Bookmakers 56%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
0.75/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.74
-32% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +93%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
224 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 77%
11.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
13.8 Crosses 19.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cumbaya
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Emelec
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
0.56 xG 1.19
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
213 Passes 380
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
7 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 Emelec Emelec 2-0 HT 0-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
07.10.2023 Emelec Emelec 3-0 HT 1-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
07.05.2023 Cumbaya Cumbaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
03.09.2022 Emelec Emelec 1-0 HT 0-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
22.04.2022 Cumbaya Cumbaya 1-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cumbaya
1-0
AWAY Emelec
0.38 xG 1.27
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
239 Passes 426
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
7 Box Touches 14
9 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cumbaya vs Emelec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cumbaya squeezed past Emelec 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Emelec at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Cumbaya had 39% of the ball to Emelec's 61%, shots finished 11-20, expected goals 0.38 to 1.27 — the balance of chances actually favoured Emelec.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Emelec led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for Cumbaya and 1.40 for Emelec.

What was the final score of Cumbaya vs Emelec?

Cumbaya 1-0 Emelec in the Ecuador - Premier on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cumbaya vs Emelec?

Before kick-off our model rated an Emelec win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cumbaya 29%, draw 30%, Emelec 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Emelec) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Emelec) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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