Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toulouse v Lyon — Team-Based Signals
Toulouse vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Toulouse
FR1
1-2
HT 1-1
Lyon
FR1
1-1
HT 1-0
Toulouse
FR1
3-0
HT 1-0
Toulouse
FR1
4-1
HT 2-0
Toulouse
FRLK
Toulouse 1-2 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics
Lyon squeezed past Toulouse 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Toulouse at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Toulouse had 45% of the ball to Lyon's 55%, shots finished 10-4, expected goals 0.94 to 0.42 — the balance of chances actually favoured Toulouse.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Toulouse and 2.67 for Lyon.
What was the final score of Toulouse vs Lyon?
Toulouse 1-2 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 41%, draw 27%, Lyon 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.