Groningen 0-1 Go Ahead Eagles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.47
Draw
34%
3.28
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.86
Over 2.5
38%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
3.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.57
6+ Goals
8%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 34% vs market 24.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.81
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
4%
13.1
X/1
13%
5.63
X/2
17%
5.43
X/X
18%
4.58
2/1
5%
29.0
2/2
12%
3.63
2/X
11%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
37%
-5.0pp
34%
Draw
27%
+6.6pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
50%
+12.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
50%
-12.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.9pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Groningen EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles EU Bookmakers 40%
-11% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.11/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.38
-45% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 76%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
19.3 Crosses 16.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Groningen
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.46 xG 0.97
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
332 Passes 323
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.05.2023 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 1-1 HT 1-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
21.08.2022 Groningen Groningen 1-0 HT 1-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
06.02.2022 Groningen Groningen 2-1 HT 1-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
21.11.2021 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 0-1 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
22.04.2017 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 2-3 HT 0-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
18.12.2016 Groningen Groningen 1-1 HT 1-1 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Groningen
0-1
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles
0.16 xG 2.95
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
294 Passes 313
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Groningen vs Go Ahead Eagles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Go Ahead Eagles squeezed past Groningen 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 34% / 35%) promised a tight game; Go Ahead Eagles found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Groningen had 48% of the ball to Go Ahead Eagles's 52%, shots finished 6-16, expected goals 0.16 to 2.95 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Go Ahead Eagles's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Groningen had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Groningen and 0.83 for Go Ahead Eagles.

What was the final score of Groningen vs Go Ahead Eagles?

Groningen 0-1 Go Ahead Eagles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Groningen vs Go Ahead Eagles?

Before kick-off our model rated an Go Ahead Eagles win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Groningen 32%, draw 34%, Go Ahead Eagles 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Go Ahead Eagles), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Go Ahead Eagles) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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