Atletico Ottawa 1-1 HFX Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
23%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.81
6+ Goals
11%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 31% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
44%
+3.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
23%
Away Win
29%
-5.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.5pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Ottawa EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY HFX Wanderers EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.99/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.71
-35% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 78%
14.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
11.8 Crosses 10.4
3.5 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Ottawa
2W-2D-2L
AWAY HFX Wanderers
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 1.56
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
340 Passes 412
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2024 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
02.06.2024 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 2-2 HT 0-1 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers CAPL
27.04.2024 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 1-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa CAPL
19.09.2023 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 3-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa CAPL
23.07.2023 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
04.06.2023 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 2-0 HT 0-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers CAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Ottawa
1-1
AWAY HFX Wanderers
0.91 xG 1.42
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
272 Passes 387
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Ottawa vs HFX Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Ottawa and HFX Wanderers shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Ottawa at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Atletico Ottawa had 43% of the ball to HFX Wanderers's 57%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.91 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atletico Ottawa and 1.33 for HFX Wanderers.

What was the final score of Atletico Ottawa vs HFX Wanderers?

Atletico Ottawa 1-1 HFX Wanderers in the Kanada - Premier League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Ottawa vs HFX Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Ottawa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Atletico Ottawa 48%, draw 29%, HFX Wanderers 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Ottawa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Ottawa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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