29/09/2024
·
15:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
3-1
2nd Score
2-1
Baerum vs Skeid II Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
12%
2/2
9%
2/X
3%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
73%
13%
Draw
15%
20%
Away Win
12%
29%
Under 2.5
24%
71%
Over 2.5
76%
64%
BTTS Yes
66%
36%
BTTS No
34%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Baerum v Skeid II — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Baerum
EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY
Skeid II
EU Bookmakers 15%
-5% /
-5%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-4% /
-4%
2.87/1.88
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.00/4.19
-8%
/
-41%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-9%
/
-26%
55%
Ball Possession
45%
15
Total Shots
9
8
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
432 · 84%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
346 · 82%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
2.3
Yellow Cards
0.6
Baerum vs Skeid II Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Baerum
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Skeid II
5.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Baerum vs Skeid II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Skeid II saw off Baerum 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.
This one beat our numbers. Baerum carried 67% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (71%), both teams to score (64%), and both reads landed as well.
What was the final score of Baerum vs Skeid II?
Baerum 1-3 Skeid II in the Norway - 3rd Division on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Baerum vs Skeid II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Baerum win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Baerum 67%, draw 13%, Skeid II 20%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Baerum) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Baerum)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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NOR4
More Norway - 3rd Division
29 Sep 2024