Lilleström 1-4 Viking — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 29 Sep 2024

Lilleström
1-4 HT 0-1
Viking
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2024

Lilleström vs Viking Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.49
No
50%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.94
4-5 Goals
22%
2.79
6+ Goals
10%
7.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.92 — our 28% vs market 15.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.2
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
12%
5.57
X/2
16%
6.26
X/X
12%
5.5
2/1
10%
23.6
2/2
12%
3.77
2/X
8%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+11.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-11.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.9pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lilleström v Viking — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lilleström EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Viking EU Bookmakers 38%
-9% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +13%
1.31/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.37
-23% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 75%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
22.9 Crosses 18.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7

Lilleström vs Viking Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lilleström
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Viking
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.38 xG 1.78
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
314 Passes 352
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.05.2024 Viking Viking 1-4 HT 0-3 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
13.08.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 1-3 HT 0-0 Viking Viking NOR
15.04.2023 Viking Viking 2-0 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
09.10.2022 Viking Viking 0-3 HT 0-1 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
10.07.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 0-1 HT 0-0 Viking Viking NOR
23.10.2021 Viking Viking 5-1 HT 1-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR

Lilleström 1-4 Viking — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lilleström
1-4
AWAY Viking
1.33 xG 2.11
51% Ball Possession 49%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
410 Passes 402
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 26
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lilleström vs Viking
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Viking cruised past Lilleström 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Viking made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lilleström had 51% of the ball to Viking's 49%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 1.33 to 2.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Viking led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lilleström and 2.00 for Viking.

What was the final score of Lilleström vs Viking?

Lilleström 1-4 Viking in the Norway - Eliteserien on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lilleström vs Viking?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lilleström win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lilleström 36%, draw 28%, Viking 36%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5
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