Sportivo Ameliano 1-4 Deportivo Recoleta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 29 Sep 2025

📅29/09/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta EU Bookmakers 33%
-13% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
0.88/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/0.82
-32% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / +46%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
22.07.2025 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 3-1 HT 0-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
11.05.2025 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 1-2 HT 0-1 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta PAR
01.03.2025 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 1-1 HT 0-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
1-4
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Recoleta swept aside Sportivo Ameliano 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sportivo Ameliano at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sportivo Ameliano had 58% of the ball to Deportivo Recoleta's 42%, shots finished 10-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Deportivo Recoleta led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sportivo Ameliano and 2.00 for Deportivo Recoleta.

What was the final score of Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?

Sportivo Ameliano 1-4 Deportivo Recoleta in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sportivo Ameliano win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sportivo Ameliano 42%, draw 26%, Deportivo Recoleta 32%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sportivo Ameliano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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