FC Cincinnati 1-0 New York City FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒01:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
35%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.96
6+ Goals
12%
8.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.5
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
15%
4.54
X/2
8%
7.88
X/X
11%
5.45
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
17%
5.36
2/X
7%
13.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 10% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
49%
-10.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
35%
Away Win
26%
+8.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY New York City FC EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.46/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.38
-13% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 82%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
14.6 Crosses 12.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
5W-0D-1L
AWAY New York City FC
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.23 xG 1.07
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
333 Passes 433
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 18
9 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.10.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
06.08.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 4-2 HT 0-1 New York City FC New York City FC CONLK
24.03.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
27.08.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
01.06.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 1-3 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
11.05.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABDK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
1-0
AWAY New York City FC
3.40 xG 0.28
50% Ball Possession 50%
22 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 5
282 Passes 283
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati edged past New York City FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; FC Cincinnati found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 50% of the ball to New York City FC's 50%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 3.40 to 0.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FC Cincinnati's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.00 for New York City FC.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC?

FC Cincinnati 1-0 New York City FC in the USA - Major League on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 39%, draw 26%, New York City FC 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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