FC Cincinnati 1-0 New York City FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.8
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.88
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.05
6+ Goals
7%
18.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 32% vs market 28.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.33
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.5
X/1
10%
3.98
X/2
8%
9.09
X/X
17%
4.42
2/1
5%
26.0
2/2
12%
7.46
2/X
8%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
52%
-10.3pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.3pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY New York City FC EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -13%
1.52/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.42
+6% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
13.9 Crosses 13.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
3W-2D-1L
AWAY New York City FC
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.05 xG 1.35
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
306 Passes 446
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 22
9 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
27.08.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
01.06.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 1-3 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
11.05.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABDK
08.09.2022 New York City FC New York City FC 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
30.06.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 4-4 HT 3-3 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
19.09.2021 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-2 HT 1-1 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
1-0
AWAY New York City FC
1.47 xG 0.49
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
351 Passes 440
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 12
11 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati edged past New York City FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 46% of the ball to New York City FC's 54%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 1.47 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.33 for New York City FC.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC?

FC Cincinnati 1-0 New York City FC in the USA - Major League on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 42%, draw 30%, New York City FC 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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