Toronto FC 2-0 Atlanta United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 24 Mar 2024

Toronto FC
2-0 HT 1-0
Atlanta United
📅24/03/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Toronto FC vs Atlanta United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.41
6+ Goals
10%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 27% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.02
1/2
9%
32.0
1/X
10%
13.2
X/1
14%
4.83
X/2
10%
6.48
X/X
13%
4.82
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
16%
4.55
2/X
6%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
44%
-7.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toronto FC v Atlanta United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.43/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.55
-15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
359 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 81%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
13.2 Crosses 15.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Toronto FC vs Atlanta United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atlanta United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.27 xG 1.76
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
330 Passes 422
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.04.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
05.03.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-1 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
11.09.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 4-2 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
26.06.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
31.10.2021 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-1 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
17.10.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD

Toronto FC 2-0 Atlanta United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
2-0
AWAY Atlanta United
2.40 xG 0.44
46% Ball Possession 54%
20 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
370 Passes 443
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
45 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs Atlanta United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toronto FC beat Atlanta United 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 35% — and on the day Toronto FC made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Toronto FC had 46% of the ball to Atlanta United's 54%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.40 to 0.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlanta United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Toronto FC and 1.83 for Atlanta United.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Atlanta United?

Toronto FC 2-0 Atlanta United in the USA - Major League on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs Atlanta United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 36%, draw 29%, Atlanta United 35%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toronto FC) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✗ BTTS Yes
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