New York City FC 3-2 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.38
Over 2.5
60%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.5
No
39%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
27%
2.78
6+ Goals
14%
7.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.51
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
12%
4.69
X/2
13%
7.75
X/X
12%
5.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.2
2/2
15%
5.02
2/X
8%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-8.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.0pp
61%
BTTS Yes
62%
-1.5pp
39%
BTTS No
38%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +28%
1.86/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.53
-2% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
17.1 Crosses 11.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
0W-1D-5L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.08 xG 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
448 Passes 320
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.08.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 4-2 HT 0-1 New York City FC New York City FC CONLK
24.03.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
27.08.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
01.06.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 1-3 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
11.05.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABDK
08.09.2022 New York City FC New York City FC 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
3-2
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.47 xG 1.55
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
373 Passes 298
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 9
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC squeezed past FC Cincinnati 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; New York City FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, New York City FC had 55% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 45%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.47 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for New York City FC and 2.17 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?

New York City FC 3-2 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 40%, draw 26%, FC Cincinnati 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York City FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New York City FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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