Nashville SC 3-4 DC United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 Oct 2024

Nashville SC
3-4 HT 2-1
DC United
📅03/10/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Nashville SC vs DC United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.26
6+ Goals
10%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.73 — our 28% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.98
1/2
10%
31.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
13%
4.91
X/2
13%
6.63
X/X
15%
4.9
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
9%
4.54
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-5.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.7pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nashville SC v DC United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY DC United EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +13%
1.43/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.01
-16% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 82%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
21.1 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Nashville SC vs DC United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nashville SC
3W-2D-1L
AWAY DC United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.98 xG 1.01
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
295 Passes 356
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.07.2024 DC United DC United 2-1 HT 0-1 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
02.07.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-0 HT 2-0 DC United DC United ABD
14.05.2023 DC United DC United 1-1 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
26.06.2022 DC United DC United 1-3 HT 0-2 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
17.10.2021 DC United DC United 0-0 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
16.08.2021 Nashville SC Nashville SC 5-2 HT 3-2 DC United DC United ABD

Nashville SC 3-4 DC United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nashville SC
3-4
AWAY DC United
2.86 xG 2.83
36% Ball Possession 64%
19 Total Shots 28
4 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 13
228 Passes 443
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 48
11 Crosses 45
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nashville SC vs DC United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

DC United edged past Nashville SC 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; DC United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nashville SC had 36% of the ball to DC United's 64%, shots finished 19-28, expected goals 2.86 to 2.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nashville SC had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Nashville SC and 1.00 for DC United.

What was the final score of Nashville SC vs DC United?

Nashville SC 3-4 DC United in the USA - Major League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nashville SC vs DC United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nashville SC win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nashville SC 38%, draw 29%, DC United 33%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nashville SC) ✗ Under 2.5
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