DC United 2-1 Nashville SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.49
No
48%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
26%
2.77
6+ Goals
10%
7.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.56
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
19%
4.81
X/2
12%
7.78
X/X
10%
5.63
2/1 EV+ ✓
8%
21.45
2/2
14%
4.99
2/X
9%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.6pp
48%
BTTS No
37%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME DC United EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 31%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.79/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.19
+9% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +41%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 81%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
20.0 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME DC United
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Nashville SC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.77 xG 1.09
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
349 Passes 335
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.07.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-0 HT 2-0 DC United DC United ABD
14.05.2023 DC United DC United 1-1 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
26.06.2022 DC United DC United 1-3 HT 0-2 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
17.10.2021 DC United DC United 0-0 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
16.08.2021 Nashville SC Nashville SC 5-2 HT 3-2 DC United DC United ABD
24.09.2020 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-0 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME DC United
2-1
AWAY Nashville SC
2.08 xG 0.73
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
344 Passes 273
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH DC United vs Nashville SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

DC United squeezed past Nashville SC 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had DC United as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, DC United had 54% of the ball to Nashville SC's 46%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.08 to 0.73 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold DC United's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nashville SC led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for DC United and 2.00 for Nashville SC.

What was the final score of DC United vs Nashville SC?

DC United 2-1 Nashville SC in the USA - Major League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for DC United vs Nashville SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a DC United win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split DC United 42%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (DC United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (DC United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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