New England Revolution 1-3 Orlando City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.27
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.99
6+ Goals
11%
9.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.05
1/2 EV+ ✓
9%
24.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
9%
6.31
X/2
15%
5.24
X/X
14%
5.24
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
17%
3.12
2/X
5%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.0 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.4pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando City EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +16%
1.42/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.09
-19% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +40%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 81%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
17.7 Crosses 14.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New England Revolution
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Orlando City
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.05 xG 1.25
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
384 Passes 391
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 3-2 HT 3-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
18.06.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 3-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
07.08.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 0-3 HT 0-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
16.06.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 1-1 HT 1-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
25.10.2021 Orlando City Orlando City 2-2 HT 1-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
26.09.2021 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-1 HT 2-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New England Revolution
1-3
AWAY Orlando City
1.03 xG 1.20
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
397 Passes 442
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New England Revolution vs Orlando City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City got the better of New England Revolution 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Orlando City as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, New England Revolution had 47% of the ball to Orlando City's 53%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.03 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New England Revolution had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for New England Revolution and 1.33 for Orlando City.

What was the final score of New England Revolution vs Orlando City?

New England Revolution 1-3 Orlando City in the USA - Major League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New England Revolution vs Orlando City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split New England Revolution 34%, draw 25%, Orlando City 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orlando City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
14 Jul 2024
02:30 DC United vs Nashville SC Analysis →
02:30 Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union Analysis →
02:30 FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte Analysis →
02:30 CF Montreal vs Atlanta United Analysis →
03:30 Chicago Fire vs New York City FC Analysis →
03:30 FC Dallas vs Los Angeles Galaxy Analysis →