Atlanta United 1-2 CF Montreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.59
Over 2.5
54%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.84
2-3 Goals
35%
2.05
4-5 Goals
28%
2.6
6+ Goals
13%
5.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.97
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.65
X/1
17%
4.2
X/2
11%
10.65
X/X
9%
6.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.35
2/2
12%
6.95
2/X
7%
14.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.35 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.6pp
23%
Draw
22%
+2.0pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
35%
+11.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
65%
-11.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.7pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.98/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.63
+8% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
386 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 81%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
19.1 Crosses 15.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY CF Montreal
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.28 xG 1.63
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
450 Passes 318
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
14.07.2024 CF Montreal CF Montreal 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
24.09.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 4-1 HT 2-1 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
09.07.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 0-1 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
30.04.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-1 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
19.03.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 3-3 HT 1-3 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
03.10.2021 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-1 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
1-2
AWAY CF Montreal
1.70 xG 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
406 Passes 436
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 18
30 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs CF Montreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Montreal squeezed past Atlanta United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atlanta United at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Atlanta United had 49% of the ball to CF Montreal's 51%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.70 to 1.00 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atlanta United.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CF Montreal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atlanta United and 1.50 for CF Montreal.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs CF Montreal?

Atlanta United 1-2 CF Montreal in the USA - Major League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs CF Montreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 49%, draw 23%, CF Montreal 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atlanta United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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