Charlotte 4-3 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.18
2-3 Goals
46%
1.86
4-5 Goals
20%
3.03
6+ Goals
9%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 25% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.09
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
13%
4.05
X/2
8%
9.95
X/X
8%
5.68
2/1
6%
21.45
2/2
17%
7.26
2/X
10%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
57%
-10.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.3pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+9.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.0pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlotte EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 23%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -2%
1.36/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.76
-31% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 79%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.0 Crosses 16.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charlotte
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Chicago Fire
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.17 xG 1.51
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
378 Passes 278
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.05.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-1 HT 0-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
08.10.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-2 HT 0-1 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
18.05.2023 Charlotte Charlotte 2-1 HT 0-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
18.09.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-3 HT 2-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
07.08.2022 Charlotte Charlotte 2-3 HT 2-2 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlotte
4-3
AWAY Chicago Fire
3.07 xG 1.90
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 18
10 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
347 Passes 482
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
29 Box Touches 38
15 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Charlotte vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charlotte nicked a narrow win over Chicago Fire 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Charlotte as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Charlotte had 43% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 57%, shots finished 19-18, expected goals 3.07 to 1.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Charlotte had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Charlotte and 1.20 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?

Charlotte 4-3 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a Charlotte win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Charlotte 46%, draw 24%, Chicago Fire 30%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Charlotte) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Charlotte) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
3 Oct 2024
02:30 Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls Analysis →
02:30 Atlanta United vs CF Montreal Analysis →
02:30 Orlando City vs Philadelphia Union Analysis →
02:30 New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati Analysis →
02:45 Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami Analysis →
03:30 Nashville SC vs DC United Analysis →