Chicago Fire 0-1 Charlotte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 16 May 2024

📅16/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.19
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.68 — our 26% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
12%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.0pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
1.37/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.39
-14% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 79%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
18.6 Crosses 15.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chicago Fire
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Charlotte
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
1.62 xG 1.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
258 Passes 422
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.10.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-2 HT 0-1 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
18.05.2023 Charlotte Charlotte 2-1 HT 0-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
18.09.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-3 HT 2-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
07.08.2022 Charlotte Charlotte 2-3 HT 2-2 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chicago Fire
0-1
AWAY Charlotte
1.03 xG 0.55
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 7
359 Passes 203
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
32 Box Touches 13
31 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charlotte nicked a narrow win over Chicago Fire 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Chicago Fire at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Chicago Fire had 62% of the ball to Charlotte's 38%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.03 to 0.55 — the balance of chances actually favoured Chicago Fire.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Charlotte led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chicago Fire and 2.25 for Charlotte.

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Charlotte?

Chicago Fire 0-1 Charlotte in the USA - Major League on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs Charlotte?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 41%, draw 27%, Charlotte 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chicago Fire) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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